The Evening After…
In case you’re wondering what the ‘after’ is that I’m on referring to - on June 4th, India counted the votes and declared the results for its 7 phase Lok Sabha elections. Without offering political commentary here, the result was that the National Democratic Alliance (or NDA) (headed by the BJP) saw its numbers shrink significantly, with the BJP falling short of the half way (272 seats out of 543) by itself (a feat it had managed in 2019). And many of the political parties in the opposition bloc, called Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (or INDIA) improved on their numbers from the 2019 general elections.
There is plenty of chatter on the (currently) former Prime Minister (as of this writing, the gentleman has submitted his resignation to the President on India) and his mandate, and the ruthless politics of the last 10 years (ok, some political commentary). There is also some euphoria and hope of ‘the message’ that this reduced mandate signifies for India’s democratic values reclamation project (I am guilty of this too, just take a look at my Instagram Stories 😂). How will parliament function? Will the pulls and pushes of coalition politics be a net-positive?
But, as we move further, it also important to reflect on what this means, what it may not mean and how things might change. My mind is running a few x times its normal speed, but I will try to limit myself to 4 things because - Ab ki baar, sirf char (This time, just 4) 1.
1. Hope is a muscle, we need to exercise it, then exercise it some more. And, resistance matters.
First things first, I should credit Riddhi Dastidar from whose tweets, I discovered the phrase ‘hope is a muscle’. This gave me an apt way to conclude a sentence that began with ‘Hope is not a strategy, it is …’.
This is especially important for people who work in journalism 2, civil society, where most days can feel like an uphill struggle, but really applies to anyone who has been feeling helpless and hopeless with the way social values have deteriorated over the decade 3. Such windows of opportunity have been rare in the last few years. But now that there is a shot, an opportunity, will we, to invoke Eminem 4, “capture it or just let it slip?”
The feeling of euphoria can evaporate, scatter - so we need to channel it and keep chipping away.
Another lesson from the last few years, where the suppression of dissent has been cranked up, is that resistance matters. 5 So many individuals, and organisations have put their livelihoods / lives on the line and resisted the ruthless majoritarian forces running wild. But they kept at it, even as their ranks fluctuated in size, intensity and motivation.
It reminds me of the last few sentences of Ravish Kumar’s acceptance speech at the Ramon Magsaysay awards:
It is possible that they may lose the battle, but there is no other way left apart from resistance. Not all battles are fought for victory - some are fought to tell the world that someone was there on the battlefield.
I know, at this point, it is almost cliched to invoke these lines. But I am also asking that we look at it in the context of hope. If no one resists today, and without the hope and the groundwork they can give would-be-resisters tomorrow, there may not be anyone to resist, and nothing for them to build from.
2. Will things change?
This is, currently, an open question. How will people who have run centralised, authoritarian administrations respond? Yes, coalition pressures will play a role, but to what extent can/will these tendencies be tempered?
The prevailing sense also seems to be that majoritarian tendencies and bigotry will need to be dialled back. To what extent can that happen when it has supposedly been such a major mobilising factor for the section of the voter base? Is there even an intent to dial it back? Or, will they looking for ways to circumvent controls and amass power?
3. Did we vote against hate, or did we just vote differently - for now?
This is a question I don’t quite think we have an answer to, even if this is what many of us want to believe. We’ll know a little more when smart people dissect the numbers at the level of various constituencies and combine it with political analysis. I am in a position to do neither.
In the absence of a large drop in the vote share, and even apparent consolidation / increases in urban centres in contrast to reductions in semi-urban, rural centres(see this) combined with ground reports about different kinds of distress it is not clear to me whether the primary factor in voting decisions (esp. where they were against the BJP) were about, and specifically, against hateful rhetoric/politics/actions, or just a result of other factors being elevated above them - temporarily. The bigger question in my mind is, how long will that hold?
4. There is much to do…
It logically follows from 3 that there is still much to do.
A lot of work will be required to build a more progressive base that values inclusiveness, plurality, tolerance, scientific temper. One that appreciates the messiness of a democratic republic as a feature rather than a bug. That realises negotiation with those we agree and disagree are equally important.
The erosion of norms, values we’ve seen, the bubbling over of latent bigotry, the escalation of pushback against social justice movements - this is not going away because of some election arithmetic. The efforts to counter these are need to take place on a timeline of decades, not days, or even years. I see very few, if any, avenues to build this out, at a scale that is required to counter the recent slide + ensure it is deep and wide enough to resist future ones.
How are we going to do this?
Postscript
I rarely prescribe things to people, because, really, who am I to do that(?), but I do have one wish for whoever forms the opposition (and at this stage it looks very likely to be the INDIA bloc) - please setup a shadow cabinet 6. Assign shadow portfolios 7; work with civil society, industry, experts; put out policy papers, draft policies in the public domain and hold consultations ; raise these learnings in parliament. It will also demonstrate to people , many of whom doubt your ability to work at all, and/or work well together (me, included) - prove us wrong.
So what if the government copies/borrows/lifts some of these ideas? It would be a great thing for the country (if the ideas are actually good), no? And if you are worried about them stealing credit - well, if you are open and transparent about this, then everything will be in the public domain for people to see.
A play on the NDA / BJP slogan ‘Ab ki baar, 400 paar’ (This time, more than 400 [seats])↩︎
The real kind that so many independent news outlets and journalists have been doing (more power to them), and not what prime time TV talking heads do.↩︎
That’s not to say that they were anywhere near perfect before that. We wanted to see improvement, though, not whatever it is we got over the last 10 years.↩︎
Sorry, I do this a lot, and often old songs.↩︎
For those who think that just because some people are able to say that dissent is shrinking means that the ability to express dissent is completely intact and such people are only rabble-rousing, you display (willingly or unwillingly, I don’t know) an ignorance that such things happens in degrees.↩︎
Listen, bigoted right wing types, if you are here and trying to creatively interpret this term, then please note that I am referring to something which is a known feature in certain styles of government, not some conspiracy. I’ve linked to the Wikipedia entry for ‘shadow cabinet’ twice, may be you will read it once.↩︎
Listen, bigoted right wing types, I’ve already explained this in the previous footnote.↩︎
